Med school slots continuing to increase, AAMC says

Increases in medical school enrollment are likely to almost meet the 30% target set by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) in 2006, according to new projections.

According to a survey conducted by the AAMC's Center for Workforce Studies, first-year medical school enrollment is projected to reach 21,376 in the school year 2016-2017, a 29.6% increase over enrollment in 2002-2003, just short of the 30% increase by 2015 that the AAMC had called for.

Most of that growth (58%) will occur in the 125 schools that were already accredited in 2002. Schools that have been accredited since then will provide 25% of the increase, and the remainder (17%) will come from schools that are currently in applicant or candidate status with the Liaison Committee on Medical Education. More than half (56%) of the enrollment growth has already occurred, with 2,850 of the 4,888 slots available by 2011.

About 40% of the schools reported targeting their increases at underserved populations. Enrollment in Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine (DO) programs has risen particularly rapidly. First-year DO enrollment in 2016-2017 is projected to be 6,179, about double what it was in 2002-2003.

The survey also identified some concerns among medical school administrators:

• 52% are concerned about the effects of the economic environment on enrollment,
• 74% are concerned about the supply of qualified primary care preceptors, and
• 53% are concerned about the supply of specialty preceptors.

The increase in medical students also raises concerns about the supply of residency slots. “If the number of entry level residency positions does not continue to increase, we may face a day when some qualified graduates of U.S. medical schools and osteopathic schools will be unable to find residency positions,” the survey authors wrote.